Prediction of development of disease among contacts of COVID-19 patients

Abstract

Objectives
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a very progressive disease that concerns everyone regarding its infection and spread. This study predicted infection among people who came in contact with COVID-19-infected patients. The authors observed many categories of patients to get the best results. The aim of this work was to study the contact status of patients with COVID-19 in Sharkia Governorate, Egypt, and to assess the criteria of contacts being infected.


Patients and methods
This is a retrospective cohort study that used the data of Zagazig University Hospitals in Sharkia Governorate, reviewing people who came in contact with COVID-19 cases for appearance of symptoms, so that the authors can predict (later on) the probability of contacts getting infected.


Results
Of the 101 contacts, 49 were positive according to symptoms, 27 were positive according to computed topography (CT), and 38 were positive according to laboratory investigations, so contacts who were getting infected were according to the definition of suspect and probable cases. Overall, the suspect and probable contacts were 61, and about 27 (of 68 contacts who did CT from our sample) were moderate and severe cases.


Conclusion
Contact cases with comorbidity and old age were more liable to get infected and to be more serious cases than young age with no comorbidity. Of all contacts (101), 42 had comorbidities and about 31 of them had the disease.